美国 房价 大涨「房价还会涨吗」

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哈佛大学日前发布的年度国家住房报告称，房价和房租的暴涨再加上利率的上调让数百万美国人的住房梦更加遥不可及，按揭利率的上升也让贷款买房者面临失去房屋所有权的威胁。

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The record run-up in home prices and rents exacerbated the affordable housing crisis in the US, and rising interest rates stand to make it even worse, according to Harvard University"s annual State of the Nation"s Housing Report released Wednesday.

哈佛大学6月22日发布的年度国家住房报告称，房价和房租的创纪录暴涨加剧了美国的住房可负担性危机，与此同时利率的上调将让这一局面雪上加霜。

Although quickly rising mortgage rates are already appearing to cool overheated housing markets, they are putting the homeownership dreams of millions of Americans even further out of reach, researchers and housing industry experts said.

研究人员和房地产专家指出，尽管房贷利率的快速上升似乎已经让过热的住宅市场降温，但是却让数百万美国人的住房梦更加遥不可及。

The income needed to qualify for a home has skyrocketed: The mortgage, property tax and insurance payments for a median-priced home of $340,700 cost $700 more per month in April 2022 than they did a year before. And the annual income needed to qualify for such a home is $28,000 higher in April 2022 versus last year, according to Harvard"s Joint Center for Housing Studies, which analyzed data from Freddie Mac and the National Association of Realtors.

通过分析房地美和全国房地产经纪人协会的数据，哈佛大学联合住房研究中心发现，符合买房资格所需的收入水平一路飙升：2022年4月购买一套34万美元的中等价位住房每月要支付的按揭、房产税和保险费比一年前增加了700美元，购买这样一套住房所需的年收入门槛也比一年前高出了2.8万美元。

This has priced out about 4 million renters over the past year alone, said Daniel T. McCue, senior research associate at the Joint Center for Housing Studies.

联合住房研究中心的高级副研究员丹尼尔·T·麦丘指出，光是在去年，这一年收入门槛就让约400万租户的购房梦化为泡影。

In March 2022, home prices rose 20.6% year-over-year — which was the largest jump in 30 years of record-keeping, according to Joint Center for Housing Studies. Rents shot up as well, especially for single-family homes that served as remote office spaces for families during the pandemic.

联合住房研究中心称，2022年3月，美国房价同比上涨20.6%，创下了有记录的30年以来的最大涨幅。房租也出现大幅上涨，尤其是在疫情期间同时作为远程办公空间来使用的单户住宅的房租。

That caught the eye of investment firms, which snapped up moderately priced homes in booming markets to then rent out or flip for a profit. Investor holdings accounted for nearly 30% of all homes sold during the first quarter of this year, Harvard"s housing studies researchers noted.

在注意到这一情况后，投资公司迅速在繁荣的房地产市场上买下了价格合理的房屋，然后将其出租或转手获利。哈佛大学的住房研究人员指出，今年一季度售出的房屋近30%都归投资者所有。

New construction increased as well, but the majority of those new homes sold for more than $400,000, putting them out of reach for first-time home buyers, the researchers said.

研究人员表示，新建房屋的数量也有增加，但是大部分新房的售价都在40万美元以上，这超出了首次购房者的经济承受能力。

"Folks that are trying to buy their first homes, families that are trying to transition from out of rental [housing] into something more affordable ... the market right now is not working for that demographic," said Alanna McCargo, president of Ginnie Mae, the federally owned mortgage backer.

美国联邦政府国民抵押贷款协会吉利美主席阿兰娜·麦卡戈说：“那些试图购买首套房的人，还有试图购买廉价房的租房家庭……目前的市场不适合他们。”

Adding increased concern, she said, are not only the rising rates of evictions and foreclosures after pandemic-related moratoriums were lifted, but also the impact of inflation.

麦卡戈指出，除了因疫情期间的延期偿付取消而被房东赶出家门和被收回房屋的比例不断上升，雪上加霜的还有通货膨胀的影响。

While the Federal Reserve seeks to soften demand for homes and curb inflation by raising rates, it can do very little to address ongoing constraints on the number of available homes for sale, Fed chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday in testimony before the Senate Banking Committee. Still, he cautioned, rising mortgage rates could ultimately price people out of homeownership.

美国联邦储备委员会主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔6月22日在参议院银行业委员会的听证会上作证词陈述时说，尽管美联储力求通过上调利率来缓和住房需求和抑制通货膨胀，但是对于解决当前在售可负担住房不足的问题能做的十分有限。但是他还是警告称，房贷利率的不断上涨最终可能会让人们失去房屋所有权。

Should monetary policy tighten and spur an economic downturn, that presents an even greater concern, Harvard researchers wrote.

哈佛大学的研究人员写道，如果货币政策收紧并引发经济衰退，造成的问题将会更令人担忧。

"With so many households financially stressed by high housing costs, a serious downturn could transform the recent uptick in housing insecurity into a wave," they wrote.

他们写道：“眼下有这么多家庭都在遭受高房价带来的经济压力，严重衰退可能会把近期住房不安全的苗头演变为浪潮。”

英文来源：美国有线电视新闻网

翻译&编辑：丹妮

来源：中国日报网